The bookmaker determines how high he estimates the probability of a sports free picks bet occurring. This is calculated from the reciprocal of the quota. For example, with odds of 2.50, the calculation would look like 1 / 2.50 * 100 percent = 40 percent probability of occurrence.
If the bookmaker issues odds of 2.50, he accordingly expects that the club will not be more than 40 percent successful. In reality, the free sports predictions provider only assumes a probability of winning of around 37-38% and then adds their own bookmaker margin to generate profits. Accordingly, as a rule, 93-97% of the stakes received are paid back to the customer.
The "Value" criterion
If the story with the bookmaker margin sounds too complicated for you, you hardly need to deal with the topic. Only comparing your probability of occurrence with that of the bookmaker is relevant. In the example:
If the player sees a subjective probability of occurrence of more than 40 percent, a bet should be placed - VALUE
If the subjective probability of occurrence is lower, you should refrain from the betting tip - no value
Priorities: Always play sports free picks forecasts at the highest odds
The higher the bookmaker's odds, the lower the estimated probability of occurrence. However, with higher free sports picks for today's odds, the winnings naturally increase since the stake is multiplied by the odds and paid out if the bet is successful. For this reason, it is advisable to play all football tips with the bookmaker that offers the best odds.
Of course, not all tipsters have an account with every bookmaker, but it is recommended not to place football bets with just one bookmaker. This inevitably leads to the fact that, on average, you always get worse betting odds, even with the best bookmaker, since the same bookie never sets the maximum odds.
Luckily, there is no need to go through all the bookmakers individually in a game to find the highest odds. The free sports predictions provide an odds comparison that shows with just a few clicks which betting provider the bets planned for today will increase the account balance the most in the event of success.
Sports free picks- make betting predictions.
In football, in particular, a large number of influencing factors must be taken into account in the sports free picks analysis. The most important ones are explained below.
How motivated are the teams?
It's no secret that in the final phase of the season, there are often exciting betting odds on teams for potential football tips that nobody would have touched throughout the entire season. The background is that one team may only be necessary to achieve important goals for the season.
The sports bettor must constantly question whether the logical bets on the football tip are still attractive given the betting odds or whether the odds have been reduced too significantly by the bookmakers.
How important are injured/suspended players for a team?
It is not uncommon for sports bettors to analyze a football game only with a view to the sum of absent players without determining their value for the team. However, failures are only painful when they make the entire team feel insecure, or the differences in quality to the substitute are too severe.
With a bit of luck, failures in the squad even lead to an exaggerated reaction to the odds. So that football tips as free sports picks for today or the day of the game on a particular team are even more interesting than would have been the case with average betting odds without the absent player.